Figures from the survey conducted by Iri for Marca 2016

After years of negative growth, the Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) market finally saw a 2% increase in sales in the first few months of 2015. The figure is contained in the study presented by Iri during the training seminar for co-packing companies and produced on behalf of the exhibition Marca, which will be held in the Bologna exhibition centre on 13 and 14 January next year.

The Italian FMCG distribution network consists of 68,000 points of sale, ranging from large hypermarkets and superstores through to small traditional shops. The FMCG segment – which includes fixed-weight food products, homecare, personal care, petcare and beverages – generated a turnover of 65 billion euros in 2014 and has already exceeded 38 billion euros in the first 7 months of the current year (about 750 million euros more than the same period last year).

So what are the factors behind this growth? Gianmaria Marzoli, Retail Commercial Director of Iri, explained: “After three years of gloom, we are seeing a recovery in volumes in 2015. There are various reasons for this, including the halt in the downward trend in the economy and the slight fall in the unemployment rate, which has improved consumer confidence. Naturally these are just trends, in other words changes indicating a new direction, and for example GDP data is still lower than five years ago.”

Inflation has also had a contribution: “The 2% growth in value of sales has in part been driven by the 0.4% rise in prices in the segment, slightly higher than the rate of inflation as reported by ISTAT.”
Seasonal factors must also be taken into account. “This year we’ve had a very hot summer,” Marzoli explained. “Looking at the figures for beverages, we find 19.3% growth in value and 9.8% growth in volumes in July compared to the same period the previous year. The same applies to August with growth rates of 10.4% and 9.8%, although we must remember that the year of comparison, 2013, was a very cold year. But even taking this climatic anomaly into account we still observe growth.”

Are we out of the crisis?
The figures observed by Iri are unquestionably positive. But what can we expect over the coming months? “Firstly, the reported volumes were already positive at the end of 2014,” commented Marzoli. “So we can expect the trend to continue, as confirmed by the figures already analysed for September. Inflation made a more significant contribution over the period from May to August and may pull down consumption slightly. However, regardless of the variations there are grounds for cautious optimism.”
These figures and trends clearly suggest that the worst of the crisis is behind us. Even the consumer goods sector, once considered impervious to economic crises, has shown that it too is susceptible. Although this recovery does not mark a return to 2010 levels, it is nonetheless a positive sign that “suggests that the downturn is over”.